In an article for Foreign Affairs, @McFaul explains why the relationship between Putin and Trump is not simply a matter of personal chemistry between two politicians, but the result of a long-term Kremlin strategy.
According to McFaul, Putin spent years building ties with Trump without even having a specific goal in mind. The calculation was simple: one day, having influence over a future US president might come in handy. The former ambassador compares this approach to a classic KGB tactic.
During Trump’s first term, his own administration still held back his efforts to move closer to Moscow. But since Trump’s return to the White House, McFaul argues, the Kremlin has begun reaping real benefits: reduced US aid to Ukraine, weaker sanctions pressure and attempts to push Kyiv into making concessions.
But Putin has a problem: time is not only on his side. McFaul is convinced that the next US president — whether a Democrat or a Republican — is unlikely to continue the current policy toward Russia.
That leads the author to a surprising conclusion: Putin would be wise to hurry up and negotiate a ceasefire. The terms available to the Kremlin could be much worse later on.