I think Trump’s representatives are bringing Putin a very simple proposal: Russia announces a ceasefire until the midterm elections and pretends it’s ready to conclude a peace agreement. Trump then declares this as the end of the war and uses it in the elections. If the Republicans keep their majority, Putin gets another two years of, let’s say, neutrality from Washington. If the Republicans lose, Trump could face impeachment, and the U.S. course could change again.
Logically, it would be advantageous for Putin to agree to such a ceasefire, especially with the State Duma elections right around the corner. Of course, everything there has long been calculated “the way it needs to be,” but voting to the sound of sirens isn’t exactly pleasant. The question is whether Putin is still capable of drawing logical conclusions.