Some opponents of the US strategy fear that the fall of the regime will lead to a political vacuum, chaos and the redistribution of property to benefit those close to the new authorities. In that case, it would be the US that would have to take on the task of rebuilding the country.
‘Such a scenario is not inevitable. Cuba can count on significant financial and human resources from the Cuban diaspora, provided that political stability and reliable protection of property are ensured following the change of power,’ writes the WSJ.
One advocate of this approach is the economist Rafael Romeu, who proposes a specific plan for Cuba. He believes that, in the initial phase, Washington will have to help the new authorities ensure the functioning of public services, the police and the health service, as well as provide fuel and food.
However, in his view, further reconstruction must rely primarily on private investment. “Cuba’s reconstruction must be financed by the private sector and capital from the Cuban diaspora within a disciplined and legally protected framework from day one,” said Romeu.
It is also proposed that a transitional government be formed, capable of guaranteeing ‘legal certainty’ to investors and preventing the seizure of assets by former military elites.
Rubio, meanwhile, continues to step up pressure on Cuban leaders by imposing sanctions and restricting access to the US for officials and their relatives. “We are trying to make it clear to them that there is no way back,” said the Secretary of State.
The combination of pressure on the elite and a convincing recovery plan could accelerate a peaceful transition of power in Cuba.